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Is 147 Next? USD/JPY Firms as Fed Resists Cuts, Japan Braces for Tariffs
Summary:
USD/JPY rose toward 146.30 on Thursday amid ongoing U.S.-Japan trade tensions and a stable dollar following the Fed’s June minutes.
Trading
146.600
ENTRY
148.000
TGT
145.300
SL
146.867 +0.633 +0.43%
0
Point
Flat
145.300
SL
CLOSING
146.600
ENTRY
148.000
TGT
The U.S. Dollar extended its strength against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, with the USD/JPY pair edging toward 146.30 during the European session, as investors parsed through conflicting trade headlines and a cautiously hawkish Federal Reserve. The pair’s movement reflects a market caught between rising geopolitical trade uncertainty and steady signals from the U.S. central bank that suggest policy will remain on hold for now.
The recent rally in USD/JPY, while modest, comes amid intensifying scrutiny of the evolving economic relationship between Washington and Tokyo. Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese imports—set to take effect on August 1—citing what he called Japan’s "stiff" stance on agriculture and a persistent imbalance in automotive trade. While the tariff rate was ultimately softer than Trump’s earlier suggestion of as high as 35%, it nonetheless reignited concerns about a potential breakdown in bilateral trade negotiations.
“They're very tough. You have to understand—they're very spoiled,” Trump said during a press event, casting doubt on whether a comprehensive trade deal can be reached. He warned that further tariff hikes, possibly to the 30%-35% range, remained on the table if progress stalls. The remarks marked a sharp rhetorical shift that temporarily weighed on risk sentiment, though markets have since stabilized in anticipation of resumed talks.
In response, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba struck a more diplomatic tone, telling reporters on Tuesday that Japan remains committed to a constructive dialogue with the United States. “We aim to find a trade deal that benefits both nations,” he said, per Reuters, underscoring Tokyo’s preference for cooperation over escalation.
The outcome of the upcoming rounds of negotiations will be closely watched by currency traders, as the imposition of tariffs could affect Japan’s export-driven economy and, by extension, pressure the Bank of Japan to maintain ultra-accommodative monetary policy longer than anticipated.
For now, however, the Yen remains under modest pressure, especially with U.S. interest rates still significantly above those in Japan. This yield differential continues to favor the Greenback, particularly in an environment where the Fed appears in no rush to pivot toward easing.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 policy meeting released late Wednesday reinforced the narrative that the central bank is likely to hold rates steady in the near term, unless there’s a material change in inflation or economic activity. While several members acknowledged risks from rising tariffs and slower global growth, most agreed that the recent inflation pickup is “modest” and likely transitory, thereby reducing urgency for immediate action.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against a basket of major currencies, remained calm around 97.40. Traders interpreted the Fed’s language as slightly hawkish, with no clear sign of a near-term rate cut, lending support to the dollar across the board, including versus the Yen.
This policy contrast—between a steady Fed and a still ultra-loose BoJ—continues to be a core pillar of the USD/JPY bullish bias. Unless the Bank of Japan shifts toward normalization or the Fed unexpectedly turns dovish, the pair may retain upward pressure in the coming sessions.
Technical Analysis 
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is navigating a short-term bullish correctional trend. The pair recently pulled back slightly from intraday highs, but this decline appears to be a technical pause rather than a trend reversal. Price action is respecting the upward bias line, and the pair continues to trade above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the broader bullish setup.
Additionally, Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are approaching oversold levels, suggesting a possible exhaustion of the pullback and the emergence of a positive divergence. This setup, combined with early signs of bullish overlapping momentum, points to a potential upward breakout if macro conditions remain supportive.
Traders are now eyeing immediate resistance at 147.14, which represents the next psychological and technical hurdle. A clean break above that level would likely embolden bulls to target higher ranges, particularly if U.S.-Japan trade headlines take a more constructive turn or if risk sentiment continues to stabilize.
On the downside, initial support lies near 145.50, and a break below this zone could trigger a more sustained consolidation phase, especially if trade negotiations falter or Fed rhetoric shifts unexpectedly dovish.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY USDJPY
ENTRY PRICE: 146.60
STOP LOSS: 145.30
TAKE PROFIT: 148.00
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