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Kiwi Falls Back as RBNZ Hints at More Easing
Summary:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) briefly tested the 0.6000 handle on Wednesday but failed to hold ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a dovish policy statement.
Trading
0.60000
ENTRY
0.58850
TGT
0.60700
SL
0.60111 -0.00235 -0.39%
0
Point
Flat
0.58850
TGT
CLOSING
0.60000
ENTRY
0.60700
SL
The New Zealand Dollar faltered on Wednesday after a fleeting test of the key 0.6000 psychological level, as investors absorbed a notably dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest policy announcement. Despite a brief uptick in sentiment during the early European trading session, NZD/USD failed to sustain gains and slipped back toward 0.5975—just above recent two-week lows—highlighting the bearish undertone that continues to define the currency pair’s trajectory.
The RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25%, a move that was widely anticipated by markets. However, the accompanying forward guidance and minutes revealed a growing tilt toward additional monetary easing, with policymakers explicitly referencing the potential for another rate cut in August. That prospect, coupled with a fragile domestic outlook and softening inflationary pressures, quickly undermined any bullish momentum for the Kiwi.
The RBNZ has already executed an aggressive rate-cutting cycle since its policy pivot in late 2024, slashing the OCR by a cumulative 225 basis points from a post-COVID high of 5.5%. The central bank's stance this week suggests it is not done yet. Policymakers noted that inflation is continuing to ease across key sectors and that the risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, particularly in light of ongoing global trade tensions and domestic housing market softness.
Of particular concern to the central bank is the weakening demand-side momentum across the New Zealand economy. Consumer confidence remains fragile, wage growth is moderating, and business investment has plateaued, all pointing to a disinflationary environment that could justify further policy support. The minutes flagged August as a potential window for another cut, reinforcing expectations that the RBNZ is in no rush to normalize or hold steady for long.
The dovish rhetoric stands in stark contrast to some of the more hawkish shifts underway at other central banks—including the Federal Reserve—which may contribute to further downside for the NZD against the USD in the coming sessions. This divergence in policy outlook is being closely watched by currency markets and is reflected in growing speculative short positions on the Kiwi.
Technical Analysis 
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD remains in a vulnerable position. Wednesday’s price action confirmed the pair’s failure to reclaim the psychologically significant 0.6000 level, with sellers regaining control following the RBNZ’s dovish guidance. The pair has since moved lower, posting a large bearish candle that decisively broke through a critical support cluster.
The downside bias remains intact, as the pair continues to trade beneath the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes a fresh bearish signal. Momentum is clearly favoring the downside, and unless there is a notable shift in macro sentiment or U.S. Dollar weakness, the pair is likely to continue grinding lower.
Immediate support is seen at 0.5952—a level that could serve as a temporary floor if short sellers choose to lock in gains. However, a decisive break below this level would open the path toward deeper retracements, with the next key support areas eyed near 0.5920 and potentially 0.5885.
On the flip side, any rebound attempts would face stiff resistance at the 0.6000 level, followed by the 9-day EMA around 0.6025. For the bulls to regain control, a sustained break above this confluence zone would be necessary, though that seems increasingly unlikely given the current policy backdrop.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL NZDUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.6000
STOP LOSS: 0.60700
TAKE PROFIT: 0.5885
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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