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WTI Nears $68 Amid Red Sea Attacks and Supply Disruptions
Summary:
WTI crude oil extends its gains for a third consecutive session, trading near $67.60, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and renewed supply disruption fears.
Trading
67.600
ENTRY
71.000
TGT
65.200
SL
65.860 +0.004 +0.01%
0
Point
Flat
65.200
SL
CLOSING
67.600
ENTRY
71.000
TGT
Crude oil prices pushed higher during early Wednesday trading in Asia, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing for a third consecutive session to trade around $67.60 per barrel. The move extends a rebound driven largely by heightened geopolitical instability in the Middle East and growing unease over maritime supply disruptions. Despite this momentum, investor caution surrounding U.S. trade policy and upcoming OPEC+ production decisions kept gains in check.
The latest support for oil prices comes on the back of alarming developments in the Red Sea. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a deadly attack on a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier on Tuesday, killing three crew members and injuring two others. The vessel ultimately sank, raising serious concerns over shipping security in one of the world’s most strategically critical maritime corridors. This followed another drone strike a day earlier on a Greek-managed ship, which left two crew members injured and two others missing.
These attacks have amplified fears of a potential chokepoint disruption, reminiscent of the Suez Canal blockage in 2021. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait serve as critical routes for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Any prolonged disruption here could ripple across global energy supply chains, forcing rerouting, increasing shipping costs, and reducing available barrels in real time.
However, crude’s upside remains tempered by concerns over looming U.S. tariff actions under the Trump administration. While President Donald Trump has delayed the implementation of new tariffs on imports from key trade partners—including Japan, South Korea, and the European Union—until August 1, his warning that “no extensions will be granted” keeps markets on edge.
The delay, while offering a temporary reprieve, highlights the precarious nature of global trade relations and their direct implications for energy demand. Should talks break down, retaliatory measures could dampen industrial output and transportation activity across major economies, undermining oil consumption in the second half of the year.
Still, the current delay has injected a dose of optimism, as it suggests that diplomatic channels remain open. Markets are cautiously hopeful that a compromise might be reached that avoids the imposition of fresh tariffs altogether—an outcome that would preserve oil demand forecasts heading into Q4.
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is gearing up for a key meeting on August 3, where the group is expected to approve a moderate production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September. This would follow the recently announced decision to raise August output by 548,000 bpd, signaling a gradual return of supply in line with cautious optimism over demand.
The supply recalibration comes as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday lowered its production forecast for 2025, citing lower-than-expected drilling activity. Persistent price volatility and restrained capital expenditure have caused American producers to proceed cautiously, contributing to slower-than-anticipated output recovery. If sustained, this dynamic could support oil prices in the medium term by softening the global supply outlook, especially if demand proves resilient.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, WTI crude continues to exhibit a constructive short-term structure. The price has remained above its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), signaling underlying strength. Bullish momentum has been bolstered by the emergence of positive RSI signals and a failure to break recent lows—indicative of buyers regaining control.
On the daily chart, oil tested resistance near $78 earlier this month, followed by a pullback characterized by a large bearish candle. However, support from the moving average system has remained intact, and the medium-term upward trend has not yet been invalidated. Notably, the MACD indicator has begun to cross downward above the zero line, suggesting weakening bullish momentum—though not yet a definitive reversal.
In the shorter 1-hour timeframe, crude oil has broken above its moving averages and appears to be entering a transitional phase. The MACD has re-crossed the zero axis with a rising histogram, signaling the re-emergence of bullish momentum. Price action is currently range-bound between $65.50 and $67.80. A successful breakout above the upper boundary could pave the way for a push toward the psychologically significant $71.00 level.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY WTI
ENTRY PRICE: 67.60
STOP LOSS: 65.20
TAKE PROFIT: 71.00
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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