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Oil Prices Climb to One-Week High as Russia-Ukraine Conflict Sparks Supply Fears, OPEC+ Meeting in Focus
Summary:
WTI crude oil extended gains to a one-week high in Asian trading Tuesday, buoyed by escalating supply risks from Russia after Ukrainian drone attacks targeted refining facilities.
CLOSED
65.397
ENTRY
68.250
TGT
64.000
SL
62.872 -0.617 -0.97%
1397
Points
Loss
64.000
SL
63.994
CLOSING
65.397
ENTRY
68.250
TGT
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged higher for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, extending a broader rally that has seen the commodity advance in four of the last five trading days. During the Asian session, WTI climbed 0.35% to trade near $64.65 per barrel, its highest level in more than a week, as supply concerns linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict added momentum to an already bullish backdrop.
The latest upward push came after reports confirmed that Ukrainian drone strikes had disabled several key Russian refining facilities, temporarily shutting down operations that account for at least 17% of the country’s oil-processing capacity, equivalent to 1.1 million barrels per day. Russia, the world’s second-largest crude exporter, plays an outsized role in balancing global supply, and any prolonged disruption raises the specter of tighter markets in the months ahead.
Markets were quick to respond, with traders increasingly factoring in the possibility of a near-term supply squeeze. “These attacks highlight the fragility of Russian energy infrastructure and raise the risk premium embedded in oil prices,” one energy strategist noted. “If the disruptions persist, refiners in Europe and Asia will need to scramble for alternative supplies, potentially pulling more barrels from the Middle East and the U.S.”
The bullish sentiment, however, is tempered by caution as investors await the upcoming OPEC+ policy meeting scheduled for September 7. The producer alliance has walked a delicate line between managing prices and ensuring sufficient global supply. Any indication of production adjustments could set the tone for oil markets heading into the final quarter of the year. For now, speculation remains mixed, with some analysts expecting the group to maintain its cautious stance, while others argue that higher prices could prompt discussions around incremental output hikes.
Beyond geopolitics and OPEC, traders are also eyeing upcoming U.S. macroeconomic releases at the start of September. Data on labor markets, consumer spending, and inflation could provide clues about demand conditions in the world’s largest oil consumer. The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory adds another layer of uncertainty, as tighter monetary conditions could weigh on fuel demand even as supply risks mount.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, WTI continues to find support above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), reinforcing the strength of the short-term bullish structure. Prices are also holding above a key correctional trend line, highlighting the dominance of upward momentum.
Momentum indicators lend further credibility to the bullish case. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory, suggesting buyers still control the market despite entering overbought levels. This condition could limit immediate upside potential unless prices build fresh momentum, but it does not yet signal a reversal.
On the upside,$66.00 stands as an initial resistance barrier. A decisive break above this level could open the way for further gains toward $67.00, followed by a retest of the psychological $66.00 mark. Beyond that, a move toward the $68.20–$68.25 resistance zone could materialize if momentum persists. On the downside, immediate support rests near $64.00, followed by stronger footing around $63.20.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY WTI
ENTRY PRICE: 65.40
STOP LOSS: 64.00
TAKE PROFIT: 68.25
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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