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Reiterate "Buy" Rating with Target Raised to US$4,501
Summary:
Gold appears to be in its most robust bull run in recent years and is expected to continue to draw support from safe-haven demand.
CLOSED
4248.66
ENTRY
4501.00
TGT
4190.00
SL
4362.75 +111.73 +2.63%
5866
Points
Loss
4190.00
SL
4189.99
CLOSING
4248.66
ENTRY
4501.00
TGT
Fundamentals
The precious-metals complex seems to be experiencing the most resilient bull market of the past decade. Gold has breached $4,000 and silver $50 without showing any sign of fatigue. Over the past month gold has rallied roughly 15% with pull-backs of less than 2%, indicating exceptionally strong institutional and investor offtake.
Thus far, these psychological milestones have had little disruptive effect on the precious-metals space. With global uncertainty resurfacing, safe-haven demand has strengthened. Although the initial market response to the latest round of Sino-U.S. trade tensions was muted, investors have gradually returned to the sector, betting that geopolitical instability will keep precious-metals demand underpinned through 2026.
The current rally has now reached the stage where institutional forecasts are fully aligned with spot prices. On Monday, Bank of America became the first major house to lift its long-term target, projecting $5,000 for gold and $65 for silver by 2026.
Against a backdrop of rising concerns over elevated U.S. equity valuations and intensifying debate about a potential tech bubble, gold is also regaining its status as a core diversifier in multi-asset portfolios. While we view these fears as possibly overstated, the mere perception of fragility continues to underpin bullion as the default hedge against investor anxiety. Our near-term price objective for gold is $4,501.
Technical Analysis
The next short-term focal point is the 100% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,584-$3,499 range at $4,252. This level is likely to act as resistance and could trigger the first round of profit-taking. A decisive break below $3,944 support would suggest a short-term top is in place and usher in a consolidation phase. Conversely, a sustained close above $4,252 would clear the way for the 161.8% extension at $4,749.
For longer-term structure, with the 261.8% projection of the $1,160 base—calculated off the $1,614–$2,074 impulse—already cleared at $4,009, the next major upside objective is the 361.8% projection at $4,923, just shy of the psychological $5,000 handle. The technical roadmap dovetails closely with the latest upward revisions released by major sell-side institutions.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 4221
Target Price: 4501
Stop Loss: 4190
Valid Until: October 31, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 4203/4182/4164
Resistance: 4252/4279/4362
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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LOSS -5847 Points
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