The continued deterioration of geostrategic dynamics is rapidly spilling over into a broader regional context. Beyond the direct U.S.-Iran confrontation, Gulf nations including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have also been impacted, with recent Iranian missile strikes reaching their territories. Analysis suggests that Iran's targeting of Gulf states may accelerate their alignment with the U.S., fostering the formation of a more extensive military coalition and driving further escalation. Significant internal political developments are also unfolding in Iran. Local media reports indicate that Khamenei's son has been designated as the next Supreme Leader, while the military claims to have destroyed two U.S. "THAAD" anti-missile systems, signaling a posture of resolve. In response, President Trump stated that Iran's military supplies are nearing depletion; while missile attacks may persist, he asserted U.S. preparedness for indefinite conflict. He also extended an offer of cooperation to what he termed "surviving elements" within the Iranian regime, attempting to create openings to deepen cleavages. Regarding gold supply, capital flows indicate a near-term cooling of risk-aversion sentiment. Holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, fell by 2.29 tons from the previous session to 1,099.05 tons, suggesting some institutions are taking profits at elevated price levels. Conversely, prominent investor Jeffrey Gundlach holds a diametrically opposite view. He argues that the pricing regime for U.S. dollar assets is at a historic inflection point, with the AI narrative being overextended. He advises investors to steer clear of U.S. equities and private credit, instead expressing strong conviction in gold and the broader commodities complex. He has even stated he would not sell gold even if its price surpassed US$5,000 per ounce, emphasizing that resource sovereignty will become the paramount hard asset in the new cycle.

Statements from Federal Reserve officials are highlighting heightened uncertainty in the policy path, which is reinforcing cautious market sentiment. Kashkari noted that the intensifying geopolitical conflict creates significant uncertainty over the Fed's earlier projection of a possible single interest rate cut in 2026, with the actual path heavily reliant on incoming data developments. Williams emphasized that the escalating Iran situation is beginning to spill over into overseas markets and key U.S. trading partners, warranting close attention to potential secondary impacts on supply chains and inflation expectations. Schmid's stance was more straightforward, reiterating that the Fed's sole immediate policy mandate remains to continue tamping down inflation, even against a backdrop of mounting growth pressures. Overall, the officials' remarks have a hawkish tilt, lending further momentum to U.S. dollar strength. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have fully priced in a scenario where rates are held steady at the March 18 meeting, while the probability of a June rate cut has retreated notably from 55% to 40%. Concurrently, the Trump administration's public criticism of Spain signals a further deterioration in U.S.-European relations. Trump labeled Spain a "terrible ally" for refusing to allow the U.S. military to use its bases for strikes against Iran and directed the Treasury Secretary to immediately explore the possibility of severing all trade ties with Spain. The Spanish government responded with a firm stance, stressing that the U.S. must respect existing bilateral agreements, reducing alliance ties with its European partner to a frosty nadir following this extreme threat. The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold an emergency vote on Wednesday regarding a "War Powers Resolution," aimed at curbing the President's authority to expand military action against Iran without congressional authorization. Despite the Republican majority in Congress, the advancement of this motion reflects deep-seated division and strategic anxiety within the American political system over being drawn into another Middle Eastern conflict.

In the 4H timeframe, we observe the Bollinger Bands contracting and narrowing, with moving averages flattening. This indicates a potential trend reversal is imminent. After encountering resistance near 5400, the price broke below 5000 and is currently ranging in the short term. A failure to consolidate above 5000 could lead to a test of the 4900 level, while a sustained hold above 5000 may trigger a rally towards 5500 and 5600. The MACD exhibits a death cross, with its bullish momentum waning as the MACD line and signal line drop below the zero line. The RSI reading stands at 46, suggesting prevailing selling pressure among market participants. The formation of lower highs on the RSI points to a near-term correction. In the 1D timeframe, the price has faced resistance at the upper Bollinger Band, forming two candlesticks with upper wicks, and a resumption of the uptrend is not yet confirmed. A MACD death cross is present, signaling a gradual weakening of bullish momentum and serving as a bearish indicator. The RSI reading of 55 reflects a market dominated by caution and indecision. The trading strategy suggests adopting a short bias initially, followed by a shift to long positions.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5220

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 5700

Support: 4500, 4300, 4100

Resistance: 5400, 5500, 5600