The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation has become a core driver of market sentiment. In his latest remarks, U.S. President Donald Trump issued highly aggressive signals, explicitly stating he does not rule out deploying ground forces to Iran "if necessary," and suggested military operations could last four to five weeks, or even "far beyond expectations." His stated objective is to completely dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities and missile threat, claiming that 10 Iranian vessels have already been sunk. While the current conflict may remain confined to the Persian Gulf region due to Iran's lack of effective long-range weapons to strike the U.S. or Israeli homeland, a trend toward protracted conflict is gradually emerging. Historically, the market impact of similar geopolitical events tends to exhibit a diminishing marginal effect, akin to the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but will continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets in the short term. The increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape is prompting central banks within the BRICS nations to incrementally reduce allocations to U.S. dollar-denominated assets in favor of increasing gold holdings—a trend expected to persist. Concurrently, BNP Paribas has released analysis suggesting that investment demand for physical gold this year is poised to become the primary catalyst for gold price appreciation, reflecting a market reassessment of gold as both a safe-haven and reserve asset. On the supply side, Uzbekistan—a globally significant gold producer—effectively halted non-monetary gold exports starting September 2025. No export records exist for the period from November 2025 to January 2026, with the central bank indicating an uncertain timeline for resuming shipments. With an average annual mine output of approximately 130 tons, representing nearly 4% of global production, this supply disruption directly removes marginal liquidity from the global physical gold market, providing structural support for prices.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February registered at 52.4. While this marks a slight decline from January's 52.6, it exceeds the market forecast of 51.8, indicating that manufacturing expansion has moderated but retains underlying resilience. Sub-index data reveals a decrease in the New Orders Index from 57.1 to 55.8 and in the Production Index from 55.9 to 53.5, suggesting a marginal weakening in growth momentum, likely attributable to heightened business caution regarding future demand. Concurrently, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals formally denied the Trump administration's petition to postpone tariff refunds, mandating the immediate commencement of a US$175 billion refund process. This ruling reinforces a prior Supreme Court decision that found most tariff measures legally unsound and is anticipated to spur over 2,000 legal claims from importers. This development presents a new fiscal challenge for the already strained Trump administration and could influence the trajectory of U.S. trade policy. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US is preparing for a potential surge in incidents within Iran over the next 24 hours. This follows earlier remarks from President Donald Trump warning that a larger wave of attacks is yet to come, highlighting the risk of a protracted conflict. Separately, the U.S. State Department has urged American citizens to leave Middle Eastern countries immediately due to critical security risks. Markets will closely monitor speeches from Federal Reserve officials scheduled for later today. New York Fed President John Williams, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are expected to speak. Any hawkish commentary from these officials could bolster the U.S. dollar and exert downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodity prices.

In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward with moving averages diverging upward, confirming the ongoing uptrend. However, the price remains near the 5400 level, currently in a short-term consolidation phase. A failure to consolidate above 5400 could lead to a decline toward 5200, while a successful hold above 5400 may target 5500 and 5600. The MACD has formed another death cross, indicating a reduction in upward momentum. The RSI reading of 58 reflects cautious market sentiment, with declining RSI highs signaling a potential short-term pullback. In the 1D timeframe, price resistance at the upper Bollinger Band has resulted in two candlesticks with long upper shadows, suggesting no immediate confirmation of a renewed uptrend. Although the MACD shows a golden cross, its upward energy is waning, a sign of weakness. The RSI at 62 points to persistent optimism in the market. Strategically, a short position followed by a long position is advised.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 5350

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 5700

Support: 4500, 4300, 4100

Resistance: 5400, 5500, 5600