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EUR/USD extends into the 1.1680s as the dollar eases
Summary:
On 17/10/2025 (GMT+7), EUR/USD firmed into the 1.1680s as the US Dollar Index hovered in the 98.3–98.7 zone and recent ECB remarks leaned toward holding rates unless new shocks emerge...
CLOSED
1.16920
ENTRY
1.17650
TGT
1.16280
SL
1.16467 -0.00030 -0.03%
423
Points
Loss
1.16280
SL
1.16497
CLOSING
1.16920
ENTRY
1.17650
TGT
Overview
Through the Asia morning, spot clustered around 1.1665–1.1695 after Wednesday’s rise and the ECB’s daily reference near 1.1649 on 16/10. The macro mix is straightforward: the dollar has slipped to the high-98s on the DXY, while multiple ECB voices Kocher and Dolenc most recently framed current rates as appropriate and cautioned against extra easing unless fresh shocks arrive.
That steadier euro-rate narrative prevents the EUR-USD differential from deteriorating further just as the greenback loses some altitude. Intraday dashboards show today’s EUR/USD range roughly 1.1642–1.1694, aligning with a buy-on-dips bias into the 1.1650s as long as the dollar fails to reclaim 99.0 on a closing basis.
Market sentiment
Positioning is cautiously risk-on for the euro and mildly risk-off for the dollar. VIX closed at 20.64 on 15/10, a level that tempers exuberance but is not high enough to force wholesale deleveraging, which helps trend-following EUR/USD bids on shallow pullbacks.
Commentary from ECB Governing Council members over the past week has reinforced a “wait-and-see” stance, so the burden of surprise sits more with the US side via data and Fed-path repricing; that asymmetry has coincided with EUR/USD reclaiming and holding the 1.16 handle for a second straight day.
Technical analysis
Price is spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below and continues to test the upper band on pushes into 1.168x–1.1700, a pattern consistent with trend continuation if pullbacks hold the 20-period mean.
On Ichimoku, price has rotated above the cloud with Tenkan riding at or just above Kijun; the M15 Kumo now acts as dynamic support in the 1.1660–1.1650 area.
Stochastic is cycling higher from mid-range, with a %K cross above %D out of the 40–50 zone typically preceding a fresh upper-band probe. Immediate resistance is the 1.1700 round figure; a sustained break invites 1.1760–1.1780 where prior swing highs cluster. Today’s recorded day range around 1.1642–1.1694 corroborates these intraday levels.
Trade Recomendation
Entry: 1.1692
TP: 1.1765
SL: 1.1628
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