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96.320

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1.17852

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1.37432

0.11%

USDJPY
143.682

0.22%

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22645.25

0.12%

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      A Deeper USDJPY Decline May Be Brewing

      Central BankEconomic
      Summary:

      This shift from support to resistance suggests that a more extended downtrend could be developing. If selling pressure resumes, a retest of the 143.74 low remains likely.

      Sell USDJPY
      End Time
      CLOSED

      144.700

      ENTRY

      143.700

      TGT

      145.500

      SL

      143.682 -0.318 -0.22%

      832

      Points

      Profit

      143.700

      TGT

      143.868

      CLOSING

      144.700

      ENTRY

      145.500

      SL

      The Core PCE data released on Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis served as a fresh catalyst for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE offers critical insights into underlying price pressures and has a direct influence on interest rate expectations.
      The headline PCE numbers were broadly in line with forecasts. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.1% in May, matching April’s pace. Year-over-year, the index increased by 2.3%, slightly above April’s 2.2%, yet still within the range expected by analysts.
      However, the core figure, which excludes food and energy, showed a slightly stronger increase. It climbed 0.2% month-over-month—above the forecast of 0.1%—while the annual rate ticked up to 2.7%, beating the expected 2.6%. These figures suggest that underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent, which could complicate the Fed’s timing for any future rate cuts.
      Meanwhile, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, marking its first decline in three years. Consumer spending and personal income also showed signs of weakness. This combination of slowing growth and increasing political pressure on the Fed has heightened the likelihood of policy easing in the coming months.
      In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears inclined to raise interest rates in response to inflation. However, concerns over financial stability continue to weigh on policymakers, prompting the BoJ to prefer determining the timing of additional hikes independently, rather than reacting solely to mounting inflationary pressures.
      Food prices in Japan continue to rise sharply, with annual food inflation reaching 6.4% in June, up from 5.8% in May. However, most other components of the index showed subdued growth, leading to a slight decline in overall inflation. On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted prices remained flat. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, declined to 1.8% year-over-year—below the BoJ’s 2% target. Nonetheless, the BoJ’s preferred gauge, which strips out only fresh food, showed a core inflation rate of 3.1%, identical to the headline figure.
      Market expectations surrounding central bank policy have been somewhat less favorable for the yen. Investors continue to reassess the BoJ’s policy stance and remain skeptical about its commitment to further tightening—especially given how rate hikes appear tied to the outcome of U.S.–Japan trade discussions.A Deeper USDJPY Decline May Be Brewing_1

      Technical Analysis

      USD/JPY extended its bearish move after breaking below the 200-period moving average and falling to a local low of 143.74. The pair has since bounced back, retracing to the 200-period MA, now acting as potential resistance around 144.77. This shift from support to resistance suggests that a more extended downtrend could be developing. If selling pressure resumes, a retest of the 143.74 low remains likely.
      The 144.93 level is also a notable zone where the price previously reversed after its bullish rally. This level coincides with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, reinforcing its significance as a potential resistance area. With the RSI still hovering around neutral territory, bears may regain control from this region. Adding to the confluence, the 100-period moving average sits just above, at 146.26, acting as another layer of potential resistance to the upside.
      Trading Recommendations
      Trading direction: Sell
      Entry price: 144.70
      Target price: 143.75
      Stop loss: 145.50
      Validity: Jul 04, 2025 15:00:00
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