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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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An Upside Correction May Develop From Local Support
Summary:
The 200-period moving average is located near a key local resistance zone, which could trigger an acceleration in bullish momentum towards this area as part of a correction.
CLOSED
1.36455
ENTRY
1.36910
TGT
1.36100
SL
1.36055 +0.00013 +0.01%
455
Points
Profit
1.36100
SL
1.36911
CLOSING
1.36455
ENTRY
1.36910
TGT
U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated that the United States will hold talks with Iran next week, although he expressed doubts about the need for a diplomatic solution regarding Iran’s nuclear program. According to Bloomberg, Trump cited the damage caused by U.S. bombings of key sites in Iran as a reason for questioning the necessity of a negotiated settlement.
While Trump suggested that the conflict was essentially “over” following the U.S. bombing mission, he also warned that tensions could escalate once again. Traders will be closely monitoring developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran discussions and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Any sign of further escalation could lead to capital flows into safe-haven assets, particularly benefiting the U.S. Dollar (USD).
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell commented on Wednesday that President Trump’s tariff policies could lead to a temporary increase in prices. However, he emphasized that the risk of causing more persistent inflation is significant enough to warrant caution when considering further interest rate cuts. While the Fed still expects to lower rates later this year, the timing remains uncertain, with policymakers awaiting clarity on the next trade deadlines and the full impact of the tariffs.
On Thursday, mixed economic data from the U.S. added a cautious tone to the market, limiting any potential rally in the U.S. Dollar. Although durable goods orders surged in May, signaling resilience in the manufacturing sector, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, deeper than the previously estimated 0.2% decline, highlighting underlying economic weakness. In another sign of a cooling economy, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 9,000 to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, falling below expectations.
The CME’s FedWatch Tool currently prices in a 24% chance of a rate cut in July, with a 90% likelihood for September, up from 14% and 65% the week before.
Meanwhile, economic data from Canada released on Tuesday showed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year in May, matching the previous month’s 1.7% rise and in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.6% in May, exceeding the market’s expectation of 0.5%, following a -0.1% decline in April.
The ongoing slump in crude oil prices could weigh on the Canadian Dollar, which is closely tied to commodities. It’s important to note that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the U.S., and lower crude oil prices tend to negatively impact the CAD’s value.
Technical Analysis
USDCAD has recently experienced a sharp drop, reaching a local low of 1.3618 during the previous session. This level coincided with an RSI reading of 16.92 on the 1-hour chart, signaling an oversold condition. These extreme oversold levels often attract buyers, making it unlikely that the price will continue its decline before a corrective move occurs from this region. Additionally, the price shows significant support at the 1.3634 level, which was swiftly reclaimed after a brief dip below this level. If this support holds, an upward momentum could be on the horizon.
On the flip side, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are situated at 1.3718 and 1.3692, respectively. The 200-period moving average is located near a key local resistance zone, which could trigger an acceleration in bullish momentum towards this area as part of a correction. Furthermore, this zone coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level of the latest bearish impulse, adding further pressure for a correction towards this key resistance area.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.3644
Target price: 1.3691
Stop loss: 1.3610
Validity: Jul 04, 2025 15:00:00
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