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Accelerating Downside Momentum Could Extend USDJPY Losses
Summary:
The pair initially attempted to build bullish momentum at this level, but strong selling pressure emerged.
PENDING
145.210
ENTRY
144.400
TGT
145.700
SL
142.946 -1.054 -0.73%
--
Point
PENDING
144.400
TGT
CLOSING
145.210
ENTRY
145.700
SL
The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from its June policy meeting, released earlier today, highlighted a growing divergence among board members regarding the timing and scale of future interest rate hikes. While some policymakers favored maintaining the current stance in light of global uncertainty and sluggish domestic growth, others emphasized persistent inflationary pressures and robust wage growth as reasons to consider further tightening.
This division has left markets without a clear signal on when the BoJ may act next, adding a layer of uncertainty to the yen’s outlook. Policymakers reiterated that any future rate hikes would be contingent upon economic and price developments materializing as expected. Although inflation has slightly exceeded earlier projections, the BoJ anticipates that Japan’s economic growth will slow, and improvements in consumer prices may remain moderate.
In the face of global risks such as trade tensions and geopolitical instability, the board generally agreed that maintaining the current accommodative stance remains appropriate for now—putting continued downward pressure on the Japanese yen.
Adding a more hawkish twist, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura offered a firmer view. Speaking in Fukushima, Tamura said there is a "good chance" the BoJ’s 2% inflation target could be achieved sooner than previously thought. He stressed the importance of timely and appropriate policy actions based on data trends, warning that inflation might accelerate more quickly than current forecasts suggest—potentially necessitating decisive tightening, even amid persistent global uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the Fed’s cautious posture in his remarks on Tuesday, stating that the U.S. central bank is in no rush to cut rates. He cited uneven inflation data and pointed out that tariff-related price pressures are likely to appear in upcoming readings for June or July.
Powell’s message was in line with the tone of the June 18 FOMC meeting, during which policymakers penciled in two potential rate cuts in the second half of the year. Still, market participants remain split over the precise timing of any policy move, and interest rate expectations continue to shift with each new data release—keeping USD-sensitive assets like gold and the yen in sharp focus.
“If inflation pressures stay contained,” Powell said, “we’ll get to a point where rate cuts happen sooner rather than later, but I wouldn’t want to point to any specific meeting.” He also noted that any material deterioration in labor market conditions would influence the Fed’s decisions, although he added: “There’s no need to rush, because the economy is strong, and the labor market remains resilient.”
Boston Fed President Susan Collins echoed Powell’s stance, emphasizing that policy remains well-calibrated, the U.S. economy is solid, and there is still time to assess inflation’s trajectory before acting.
Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. consumer confidence data released Tuesday showed a decline, with the Conference Board’s index falling to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May. The softer outlook suggests that consumers may pull back on spending in the months ahead, which could weigh on the Fed’s growth expectations and potentially influence the timing of interest rate adjustments.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY has entered a correction phase after failing to hold above the 200-period moving average, which currently sits at 145.69. The pair initially attempted to build bullish momentum at this level, but strong selling pressure emerged. Price has since fallen sharply and closed below the 100-period moving average at 145.20—a technical breakdown that may pave the way for further downside acceleration.
Near-term bearish targets are now focused on the 144.40 area, which marks a previously tested support level. The RSI, meanwhile, is hovering just above oversold territory at 30.8. These levels often signal exhaustion among sellers and may spark a temporary rebound or consolidation before the broader downtrend resumes.
The 100-period moving average, now turned resistance, could act as a barrier if buyers attempt to push prices higher. However, as long as the pair remains below both key moving averages, the path of least resistance appears to be downward. Should RSI remain near oversold without a sustained bounce, it could confirm persistent bearish pressure and reinforce expectations of a deeper correction.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 145.21
Target price: 144.40
Stop loss: 145.70
Validity: Jul 04, 2025 15:00:00
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