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Upward Correction Possible for USDCAD as Key Levels Are Tested
Summary:
Should the price find support here, a new bullish impulse could begin, potentially targeting the 1.3780 area, where the price has encountered resistance on previous occasions.
PENDING
1.35900
ENTRY
1.37800
TGT
1.35000
SL
1.36055 +0.00013 +0.01%
--
Point
PENDING
1.35000
SL
CLOSING
1.35900
ENTRY
1.37800
TGT
On Monday, White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett announced that the U.S. would immediately begin trade discussions with Canada after the latter removed its digital services tax, which was targeted at U.S. tech companies. Canada had suspended its plan to begin collecting the new tax just hours before it was set to take effect, in a bid to move forward in stalled trade negotiations with the U.S.
The Canadian Ministry of Finance confirmed that Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump would resume trade talks with the goal of reaching an agreement by July 21. This positive development in trade negotiations provides some support for the Canadian dollar (CAD) and poses a headwind for the currency pair.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices faced pressure as investors weighed the easing of risks in the Middle East against the outlook for a possible increase in OPEC+ production in August. This, in turn, could put downward pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie, limiting further declines in the pair.
If Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" is ultimately passed, it is expected to add approximately $3.8 trillion to the U.S. federal deficit. Such a significant expansion of fiscal imbalance could weigh further on the U.S. dollar and potentially boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
In terms of data, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast to rise slightly from 48.5 to 48.8, suggesting a marginal improvement in factory activity. Additionally, the ADP employment report is projected to show a rebound in private-sector job creation, with 85,000 jobs added compared to 37,000 in the previous month.
However, attention will soon turn to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Expectations are for a slowdown in hiring, with estimates suggesting the U.S. economy added only 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labor market.
Technical Analysis
USDCAD has recently pulled back, once again testing support at the 1.3590 level. This price zone had previously triggered an upward movement, and there is potential for another bullish reaction if it proves to be a significant support area once again. Should the price find support here, a new bullish impulse could begin, potentially targeting the 1.3780 area, where the price has encountered resistance on previous occasions.
Meanwhile, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are situated at 1.3997 and 1.4032, respectively, on the daily chart. This confluence of moving averages could suggest that the price might correct upwards to meet these averages in the medium term. Therefore, an upward correction seems imminent. However, a strong break below the local low of 1.3548 would signal a bearish continuation, potentially triggering a new downward momentum for the pair.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.3590
Target price: 1.3780
Stop loss: 1.3500
Validity: Jul 10, 2025 15:00:00
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