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EURAUD Faces Key Test as Bearish Pressure Builds
Summary:
This pullback may be the early stage of a more pronounced correction, with the lower boundary of the channel near 1.7805 acting as the first major support.
Trading
1.78672
ENTRY
1.77100
TGT
1.80100
SL
1.79166 +0.00083 +0.05%
0
Point
Flat
1.77100
TGT
CLOSING
1.78672
ENTRY
1.80100
SL
Germany, the largest economy in Europe, remains under intense economic pressure as markets closely watch the outlook for a potential trade agreement with the United States. This ongoing uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on German economic performance.
On Thursday, Growth from Knowledge (GfK) released the latest Consumer Confidence Survey for July, an important leading indicator of economic sentiment in Germany. Expectations had pointed to a reading of -19.3, already indicative of a deteriorating outlook. However, the actual figure came in even lower, at -20.3, highlighting a further decline in consumer sentiment.
One of the most significant challenges for both Germany and the broader European Union has been the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States on global trading partners. U.S. trade policy has introduced sweeping tariffs, with a base rate of 10% on all imports and additional duties on specific EU goods such as steel, aluminum, and auto parts. These measures, enacted symbolically on “Liberation Day,” have placed substantial pressure on export-reliant economies.
In response, the European Union is actively seeking a mutually beneficial agreement with the United States. Any progress in easing tariffs, particularly on key industrial sectors, could provide some much-needed relief to the eurozone economy.
Meanwhile, economic data releases this week have been relatively limited. Aside from the GfK consumer confidence numbers, which were broadly in line with expectations, communication from the European Central Bank has remained largely neutral. Remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane suggested that the central bank has "largely completed" its mission to bring inflation back to target, which aligns with the recent upward momentum seen in euro exchange rates.
On the other side of the globe, the Australian dollar has found some support as geopolitical tensions ease. Following the confirmation of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran earlier in the week, risk appetite has returned to the markets, lifting the Aussie.
Additionally, Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday showed a continued decline in price pressures. Analysts had forecast a 2.3% annual inflation rate for May, but the actual reading came in slightly lower at 2.1%. This softer inflation print has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may move forward with another rate cut as early as July.
Technical Analysis
EURAUD is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel. After recently approaching the upper boundary of the channel, the pair has begun to show signs of a bearish reaction. This pullback may be the early stage of a more pronounced correction, with the lower boundary of the channel near 1.7805 acting as the first major support.
This zone is particularly significant, as it converges with the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which currently sits at 1.7712. Just below, the 200-period moving average lies at 1.7618, reinforcing the potential for further downside if momentum builds and the lower channel boundary is decisively breached.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 51, indicating a neutral stance. This suggests that bearish momentum has not fully taken control, but a firm break below the 1.7854 support level could serve as a catalyst for further downside movement. Should this occur, the next key support lies around 1.7706. This area could pose a greater challenge to sellers, and a period of consolidation near this region—along with the moving averages—could ultimately lay the groundwork for a renewed bullish move.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.7870
Target price: 1.7710
Stop loss: 1.8010
Validity: Jul 04, 2025 15:00:00
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