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145 Level Becomes Fierce Battle Between Bulls and Bears – Can Technical Breakthrough Open Upside Potential?
Summary:
Expectations of only two Fed rate cuts this year provide some support for the US dollar, while fading expectations of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes may pressure the yen lower.
Trading
145.092
ENTRY
150.900
TGT
142.500
SL
142.946 -1.054 -0.73%
0
Point
Flat
142.500
SL
CLOSING
145.092
ENTRY
150.900
TGT
Fundamentals
On June 18th, the Fed held rates steady in its June meeting, but its dot plot revealed that 7 out of 19 officials favored no cuts this year. Projections for just two cuts before 2025 reinforced the US dollar's yield spread advantage. Despite weak data like May's -0.9% MoM U.S. retail sales, the Fed's concerns about sticky inflation suppressed bets for easing, offering the dollar some support. Moreover, June U.S. manufacturing PMI (52) and services PMI (53.1) exceeded expectations, while existing home sales signaled consumer resilience, providing the fundamental underpinning for the US dollar.
In Japan, the BoJ's dovish stance amplified yen depreciation pressures. Although May core CPI rose 3.7% YoY, the BoJ explicitly delayed rate hikes until Q1 2026 and slowed its bond purchase tapering pace, further cooling expectations for earlier tightening. This policy lag exacerbates the yen's yield disadvantage. Coupled with risks of fiscal expansion ahead of the upper house election (LDP approval rating fell to 32.5%), the yen faces dual depreciation pressures.
Geopolitically, Trump's claim that Israel and Iran agreed to a "complete and total ceasefire" sent oil prices lower, weakening demand for the yen as a safe haven currency.
Technical Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows USDJPY breaking through the key resistance at 145.00, opening upside potential with significantly strengthened bullish momentum. Yesterday, the pair retreated after facing pressure below 148.50 and has now pulled back near the 145.00 support level. Currently, USDJPY is hovering above the MA60, multiple support factors converge here. If upcoming hourly candles show signs of stabilization near 145.00, the likelihood of short-term continuation upward increases. Simultaneously, the MA system shows a bullish alignment, further boosting the probability of extended gains.
Therefore, buying at lows is suggested.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 145.10
Target price: 150.90
Stop loss: 142.50
Valid Until: July 08, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 144.32/142.79
Resistance: 148.01/148.64
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