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Conflict Ignites the Oil Market's Core, with Bullish Trends Continuing Unabated
Summary:
The ongoing escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, marked by U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the Iranian parliament's vote to close the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to sustain upward pressure on crude oil prices.
CLOSED
73.966
ENTRY
77.900
TGT
71.900
SL
64.325 -0.053 -0.08%
2066
Points
Loss
71.900
SL
71.895
CLOSING
73.966
ENTRY
77.900
TGT
Fundamentals
The core geopolitical tension in current WTI crude oil pricing centers on the escalation of risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The sudden deterioration of Middle Eastern stability has triggered a panic-driven repricing of oil supply risks: last weekend's U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the Iranian parliament's vote on closing the Strait of Hormuz have collectively threatened approximately one-third of global maritime crude oil trade with potential disruption. This geopolitical risk premium caused WTI futures to open sharply higher today, but subsequent market reassessment, viewing the likelihood of Iran closing the strait as low, led to a retreat, with WTI erasing its early gains and maintaining a downward trend through the European trading session.
In response to U.S. airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's senior advisor, Ali Shamhani, posted on social media that even if Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, the conflict is far from over; uranium enrichment capabilities, technical expertise, and political resolve remain intact.
Meanwhile, Khosravi, a member of Iran's Parliamentary National Security Committee, stated that the parliament has concluded that closing the Strait of Hormuz should be considered, though the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Market analysts warn that if Iran proceeds with closing the strait, crude oil prices could surge to US$120 per barrel.
Technical Analysis
In the 4H timeframe, WTI crude oil opened sharply higher today, gaining nearly US$3 to reach US$76.66 before quickly retracing its gains, effectively erasing the entire intraday rally and maintaining a downward correction trend. However, the SMA system remains in a bullish alignment, indicating that the upward momentum for WTI crude oil has not yet reversed, suggesting a higher probability of continued short-term gains.
Currently, WTI crude oil has retreated to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.236 at US$72.59, which also coincides with the MA20, creating a support resonance. This enhances the likelihood of WTI maintaining its bullish trend. If the price fails to effectively break below US$72.59 and the MA20 in the near term, the short-term outlook remains bullish; otherwise, WTI may test the key support level at US$71.13.
It is recommended to go long at the lows.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 73.70
Target Price: 77.90
Stop Loss: 71.90
Valid Until: July 7, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 72.78, 72.06
Resistance: 76.66, 79.35
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