Starting June 23rd, the A-share market witnessed significant gains for three consecutive trading days. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.86%, setting a new high for the year, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.88%, and the ChiNext Index surged 5.90%. This rally resulted from the convergence of multiple domestic and external factors: 

Firstly, Iran-Israel Ceasefire:​​ An agreement between Iran and Israel significantly cooled geopolitical risks, despite minor subsequent friction. This prompted capital to flow back from safe-haven assets into equities. The ceasefire spurred a global rebound in risk assets, lifting major US indices, the Hang Seng Index, and Asia-Pacific markets. Foreign capital's appetite for Chinese assets strengthened. Data shows northbound capital recorded a net inflow exceeding CNY 12 billion on June 25th, hitting a nearly three-month high. 

Secondly, the People's Bank of China (PBoC)'s Looser Policy Expectations Intensify:​​ On June 25th, the PBoC injected CNY 300 billion via its Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF), resulting in a net liquidity injection of CNY 118 billion. Combined with CNY 200 billion in reverse repos, this brought the mid-June net liquidity injection to CNY 318 billion. The market anticipates a potential 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and an interest rate cut by 30 basis points in H2 2025. These liquidity-easing expectations directly benefit financial heavyweights. Furthermore, six departments including the Financial Supervisory Administration jointly issued the "Guidance Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption," explicitly promoting long-term capital inflows into the market and fostering stable capital market development. ​Regarding capital flows,​ margin financing balances have remained above CNY 1.8 trillion for 11 consecutive days. On June 25th, total trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges surpassed RMB 1.6 trillion, expanding by over CNY 300 billion from the previous session. This indicates a synchronized recovery in leveraged capital and retail investor sentiment. 

Notably, institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS have upgraded their ratings on A-shares, forecasting the CSI 300 to reach a target level of 4,600 points, implying about 10% upside potential.

Based on the daily chart, the A50 index has rallied strongly following a deep correction starting in early April, testing the key 13,800 resistance level multiple times. This indicates robust short-term bullish momentum. Furthermore, after decisively breaking above multiple moving averages (MAs) in early May, subsequent pullbacks on June 2nd and June 23rd held firmly above the 60-day and 144-day MAs, reinforcing the bullish energy. 

Regarding the moving average system, several MAs are showing signs of upward inflection, suggesting a gradually increasing probability of sustained near-term gains.

Currently, the A50 index faces near-term resistance at 13,800. As the price has touched this level several times, selling pressure has gradually been absorbed, increasing the likelihood of a breakout. A decisive break above 13,800 would open significant further upside potential, paving the way for a test of the previous high of 15,834.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 13700

Target price: 14500

Stop loss: 13250

Valid Until: July 11, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 13505/13264

Resistance: 13800/14566