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Gold Bearish in the Short Term Amid Middle East Ceasefire and Fed’s Wait-and-See Stance
Summary:
Recently, Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, causing the market’s risk-aversion sentiment to ebb and consequently pushing down gold prices. However, the conflict between the two countries may not have come to a complete end, and there is still potential for gold prices to rise.
CLOSED
3323.73
ENTRY
3250.00
TGT
3370.00
SL
3345.35 +42.57 +1.29%
4939
Points
Profit
3250.00
TGT
3274.34
CLOSING
3323.73
ENTRY
3370.00
SL
Fundamentals
The recent phased easing of the Middle East situation has directly triggered the decline in gold prices. Israel and Iran, with Trump’s mediation, reached a ceasefire agreement, and both sides have resumed the opening of their airspace. Iran’s foreign minister explicitly stated a “willingness to resolve differences through negotiations,” and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blockaded has significantly diminished. The risk premium on gold, which had been inflated by geopolitical conflicts, was quickly reversed, with gold prices plummeting by 46.06 dollars in a single day yesterday. As a result, funds have accelerated their exit from gold, shifting towards risk assets such as the stock market.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see stance on monetary policy has further suppressed gold prices. Powell emphasized at the congressional hearing the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and hinted at a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts before September. The market’s expectation for a rate cut in July has plummeted from 35% to 12%, and the US dollar index has stabilized above 98.00, diminishing the appeal of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
It is important to note that, despite the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, there is still the possibility of renewed conflict between the two countries. Should the conflict flare up again, gold prices could once again find support and rise.
Technical Analysis
From the 4-hour chart perspective, the short-term upward trend line of gold has already been breached. The likelihood of a short-term trend reversal to the downside is gradually increasing. Moreover, the MA20 crossing below the MA60 and MA144 to form a “death cross” has further heightened the probability of a short-term decline in gold prices.
Currently, gold prices rebounded after falling to the support level near 3292.00 yesterday. Today, the rebound has continued, but in the short term, there is a resistance level at 3350.00 above. If gold prices weaken under this resistance level, they may once again test the support level at 3292.00. Should this support level be breached, the downside space for gold prices will be opened up, with the next target potentially falling to around 3245.00.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 3340.00
Target Price: 3250.00
Stop Loss: 3370.00
Valid Until: July 09, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 3295.39/3245.33
Resistance: 3340.24/3357.71
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