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Policy Divergence and Technical Breakthroughs Converge, Targeting the 1.93 Level
Summary:
The UK economy's marginal improvement, coupled with weakening growth momentum in Canada, may lead to further strengthening of the GBPCAD.
Trading
1.87448
ENTRY
1.96900
TGT
1.84300
SL
1.86973 +0.00168 +0.09%
0
Point
Flat
1.84300
SL
CLOSING
1.87448
ENTRY
1.96900
TGT
Fundamentals
UK:
The preliminary UK Composite PMI for June rose to 50.7, with the Services PMI increasing to 51.3. Although the Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.7, it still exceeded expectations, indicating a stabilization in overall economic activity and providing fundamental support for the British pound. Despite recent dovish signals from Bank of England Governor Bailey, the market has partially priced in an August rate cut. Furthermore, the UK's May core inflation rate remained at 3.5%, and wage growth slowed only marginally, potentially limiting the scope for policy easing.
Additionally, the UK's Q1 GDP grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. The combination of service sector expansion and a slowdown in manufacturing contraction suggests signs of a soft landing, alleviating market concerns about a recession.
Canada:
In April, Canadian manufacturing sales experienced a 2.8% decline, marking the largest monthly decrease since October 2023, and representing the second consecutive month of contraction. This downturn was significantly impacted by U.S.-Canada tariffs, particularly affecting petroleum and automotive exports.
Furthermore, Canada's May core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, exceeding the headline inflation rate of 1.7%. However, with weak economic growth momentum, market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BOC) have increased. The BOC maintained its interest rate at 2.75%, but the economy may have entered a technical recession (with Q2 GDP expected to decline by 1%), and the pressure for policy easing continues to suppress the Canadian dollar.
In summary, the marginal improvement in the UK economy, coupled with weak growth momentum in Canada, suggests that the GBPCAD may continue to strengthen.
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe, the GBPCAD exhibits a clear upward trend, with the SMA system displaying a bullish alignment, thereby reinforcing the continuation of the overall uptrend.
Currently, the GBPCAD has breached the critical resistance level of 1.8710, as well as the March high of 1.8777, which suggests further upside potential. The next target could be a test of the May 2016 high of 1.9301. A break above this level could see the GBPCAD potentially rise towards the 1.9800 range.
It is recommended to go long at the lows.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.8730
Target Price: 1.9690
Stop Loss: 1.8430
Valid Until: July 14, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 1.8669, 1.8551
Resistance: 1.8831, 1.9301
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A senior trader with rich trading experience, proficient in naked K trading, and has accumulated rich practical experience in the fields of stock market, foreign exchange and commodities. With deep market insight and excellent trading skills, he can seize opportunities in complex market environment and provide investors with accurate and effective trading strategies. With his superb analytical ability and rich market experience, he is committed to pursuing excellent performance in the global financial market.
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