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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Tariff Stalemate Triggers Short-term Bearish Outlook
Summary:
With only 10 days remaining until the U.S. deadline for imposing tariffs on the EU, the transatlantic tariff impasse could escalate to a 50% increase. This development is likely to undermine European export confidence and subsequently exert downward pressure on the euro.
CLOSED
1.17243
ENTRY
1.14900
TGT
1.17900
SL
1.17837 -0.00024 -0.02%
657
Points
Loss
1.14900
TGT
1.17902
CLOSING
1.17243
ENTRY
1.17900
SL
Fundamentals
The EURUSD exchange rate is currently under sustained pressure, with the primary bearish fundamental factor being the escalating risks from the U.S.-EU tariff negotiations. With just ten days left until the U.S. deadline for imposing tariffs on the EU (July 9), the Trump administration has threatened to raise tariffs on EU goods across the board to a 50% benchmark (currently 50% for steel and aluminum, 25% for automobiles). Meanwhile, the EU’s proposed countermeasures targeting 95 billion euros of U.S. goods have failed to bridge internal divisions. Germany, facing potential export contractions of 38.5% in its automotive and pharmaceutical sectors, is inclined to compromise, while France remains firmly committed to a “zero-tariff” stance. This policy stalemate is exacerbating market concerns over a potential Eurozone recession and significantly increasing capital outflow pressures.
In the meantime, the structural differences in economic data between the U.S. and Europe are reinforcing the dollar’s advantage. The U.S. core PCE inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.7% in May, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Despite signs of weakness in personal consumption expenditures, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s statement that he is “not in a hurry to cut rates” has led to continued liquidity tightening through September. In contrast, the Eurozone is experiencing a third consecutive month of industrial output contraction, compounded by supply chain disruptions from trade diversions. This has intensified market doubts over the sustainability of the ECB’s high-interest-rate policy. Although Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar, short-term risk-averse capital is accelerating its flow into the U.S. Treasury market, creating a pincer effect on the euro.
Technical Analysis
From the weekly chart perspective, EURUSD has recently risen to just below the key resistance level of 1.1760, with increased short-term upward pressure. Multiple attempts to break through this resistance level on the 4-hour chart have been unsuccessful, indicating significant pressure and a gradual buildup of bearish momentum in the market. Therefore, the likelihood of a short-term decline is increased.
At present, if EURUSD fails to effectively break through the 1.1760 resistance level during the European trading session, this could be considered a technical sell signal, with the market likely to adjust downward to the psychological support level of 1.1600. If this level is breached, the pair may then test the first weekly support level at 1.1480.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.1720
Target Price: 1.1490
Stop Loss: 1.1790
Valid Until: July 15, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 1.1630/1.1480
Resistance: 1.1760/1.1909
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